Who is the IEA?

The IEA (the International Energy Agency) is the energy planning and coordinating arm of the thirty nations of the OECD. It was asked by the G-8 leaders in 2005 to come up with proposals for dealing with the global warming problem. The response of the agency is contained in its Energy Technology Perspectives 2006: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050, Paris, 2006. The Agency was aided by 5,000 experts from 39 nations in drawing up this report.

IEA projections for 2050

Experts usually make their projections for 2050

· No new policies (called “Baseline” by IEA):

CO₂[carbon dioxide] emissions increase 50% over 2003 by 2030 and increase 137% over 2003 by 2050. This would lead to catastrophic CO₂concentrations in the atmosphere. The IEA aim, therefore, is to have global CO₂emissions as close to current 2005 emissions s as possible by 2050 despite (a) maybe a doubling of world population and (b) a large increase in economic activity, especially in China and India and (c) a greater use of coal (three times higher), because oil production is peaking in 10 to 25 years. The IEA therefore calls for new policies to limit CO₂emissions to achieve this goal, as the G8 leaders mandated and as detailed below.

Savings in CO₂emissions by 2050 from IEA proposals

Increased efficiency in industry, transport, etc. 31-53% of total savings

Carbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS) 20-28%

Misc. fuel switching 11-16%

Renewables to generate power 5-16%

Nuclear 2-10%

Biofuels in transport 6%

Other 1-3%

(The range given for most items derives from the fact that there were several projected scenarios with differing assumptions, some more and some less pessimistic about what can be achieved.)

What is remarkable is that increased efficiency dominates the picture and that renewables play a modest role.